Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Which Has Performed Better Over the Last 10 Years?

For decades, people built wealth through stocks and bonds. Today, that approach is facing more scrutiny. Equity markets are more concentrated than at any point in recent history. A small number of large technology companies now drive a significant share of index performance. Valuations remain elevated by historical standards. Government debt levels are high. Interest rates have risen quickly.  And inflation has proven harder to contain than many expected.

Together, these factors have raised new questions. How resilient are traditional portfolios if growth slows? How exposed are they to policy shifts, debt dynamics, or market corrections? What happens if today’s market leaders lose momentum?

At the same time, bitcoin has moved from the edge of the market into the mainstream. What began as a small, experimental network now appears in institutional portfolios, public company balance sheets, and long-term individual holdings. Spot bitcoin ETFs, approved in the US in 2024, have made access easier through traditional investment channels.

This article compares historical performance data for bitcoin and the S&P 500 over the past decade. It looks at returns, volatility, and drawdowns to show how each asset has behaved in practice, and why the experience of holding them feels so different.

Why bitcoin and the S&P 500 are now compared

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 now appear in the same investment conversations, even though they come from very different places.

The S&P 500 reflects 500 large US companies. Its performance links to business growth, profits, and the strength of the US economy. This model has shaped investing for decades.

Bitcoin is newer. It launched in 2009 as a digital asset with a fixed supply and no central issuer. Its value comes from adoption, liquidity, and network effects rather than earnings or dividends.

For a long time, these worlds did not overlap. Bitcoin was small and experimental, while equities dominated mainstream portfolios.

That has changed. Bitcoin has gained infrastructure, liquidity, and regulatory recognition. Large institutions now hold it. Public companies hold it. In 2024, US spot bitcoin ETFs opened access through traditional investment channels. 

As a result, bitcoin now appears alongside stocks and bonds in many portfolios. Many experienced investors and analysts now treat bitcoin as a distinct financial asset class worth studying, even when they disagree on its role.

Of course, they grow in different ways. Stocks grow through business performance and reinvested profits, while bitcoin grows through adoption and market demand. And it goes without saying that past performance does not predict future results. Bitcoin remains volatile. Equity markets remain cyclical.

How bitcoin and the S&P 500 performed over the last decade

Let’s start with the data. Over the past ten years, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have delivered very different return profiles. Bitcoin has recorded higher long-term growth over the period shown, while the S&P 500 has delivered steadier, more incremental returns. Over shorter windows, bitcoin’s performance has varied widely relative to equities, sometimes lagging and sometimes sharply outperforming. Past performance does not predict future results.

Average annualised return (CAGR) (as of January, 2026)

Notes

• Bitcoin returns are based on BTC-USD spot prices using calendar year-end closes.
• S&P 500 returns shown are total return (dividends reinvested).
• Returns are denominated in USD and do not include fees, taxes, or trading costs.

Sources: Investing.com historical data (Bitcoin and S&P 500).

Understanding CAGR and total return

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) shows the average annual rate at which an investment would have grown if returns had been smooth over time. It does not reflect year-to-year volatility.

For example, bitcoin rose from the low hundreds of dollars in 2015 to tens of thousands of dollars by 2025. That translates into a very high long-term CAGR, even though returns varied dramatically from year to year. Some years delivered outsized gains. Others saw large drawdowns. CAGR helps summarise that long-term outcome without implying steady annual growth.

Year-by-year returns show a very different journey

Long-term averages can hide what it actually felt like to hold each asset. Year-by-year returns show how uneven bitcoin’s path has been compared with equities.

Sources: Investing.com historical data (Bitcoin and S&P 500)

Bitcoin has delivered higher cumulative returns over the decade shown, but those gains came with repeated drawdowns of 50% or more and long recovery periods. The S&P 500’s returns have been lower in absolute terms, but the path has generally been less volatile.

Here’s one way to look at it. A hypothetical $1,000 invested in bitcoin at the start of 2015 would have grown far more than the same investment in the S&P 500 by the end of 2025. However, that bitcoin investment would also have experienced multiple deep declines along the way, testing risk tolerance and time horizon in ways equity investors are less accustomed to.

Why volatility changes the experience of holding each asset

The tables show where bitcoin and the S&P 500 ended up, but not what it felt like to get there.

Over the past decade, bitcoin delivered far higher long-term returns. It also experienced far deeper drawdowns along the way. In years like 2018 and 2022, bitcoin fell by more than 60 percent. Those losses were followed by recoveries, but often only after long periods of uncertainty.

The S&P 500 followed a different path. Returns were lower, but declines were typically smaller and less abrupt. Even in weak years, drawdowns were shallower than bitcoin’s, and recoveries tended to come through earnings growth, dividends, and policy support.

Day-to-day movement highlights the difference. In bitcoin markets, 5% swings are common and large moves can happen within hours as liquidity and sentiment shift. Equity markets usually move more slowly, with most daily changes staying within a narrower range unless there’s a major shock.

These patterns shape how people behave.

Equity investors usually think in quarters and years, tracking business performance, margins, and long-term growth. Many stay invested through downturns because recovery is part of the cycle.

Bitcoin operates on a faster emotional timeline. Liquidity can change quickly, sentiment can turn in days, and price moves test conviction. Holding through volatility requires preparation and discipline.

Market structure matters too. Bitcoin trades around the clock. Access and liquidity can vary by exchange, jurisdiction, and network conditions, and outages or withdrawal limits can occur. Stock markets trade on set schedules, through centralised exchanges, with more predictable liquidity.

What drives bitcoin’s price 

Three patterns show up repeatedly in bitcoin’s history.

First, correlation with traditional assets changes by market regime. In some periods, bitcoin moves independently. In others, it moves with broader risk assets.

Second, upside often appears in adoption and liquidity cycles. When interest increases and capital flows in, price tends to respond quickly.

Third, sensitivity to macro conditions is high. Shifts in rates, policy, and risk appetite show up fast in price action.

These characteristics attract interest and create opportunity, although they also increase risk.

How investors are thinking about bitcoin in a portfolio in 2026

Over the past few years, bitcoin has moved from a niche holding into a growing number of long-term portfolios. This reflects broader adoption, improved infrastructure, and rising institutional participation.

How it fits varies.

Some investors view it as a long-term monetary asset. Others see it as a high-growth allocation. Some use it as a small diversifier. Others remain cautious. There is no single view, even among experienced investors.

What has changed is attention. Asset managers now debate its role, researchers analyze its correlation patterns, macro investors watch how it responds to liquidity and policy, institutions build products around it, and regulators develop frameworks for it.

Accessing liquidity without selling bitcoin

If you hold bitcoin long term, you might eventually need cash. Selling is one way to get it, but that can also trigger taxes and reduce your exposure to future price moves.

Bitcoin-backed loans are another option.

They let you use bitcoin as collateral, receive fiat, and keep ownership of your bitcoin. Loan terms depend on the loan-to-value ratio, market price changes, and liquidation thresholds.

This comes with risk. If the price falls, you may face a margin call or liquidation. Sharp market moves can make losses worse. You need to monitor your position and understand the downside.

Where Ledn fits

Ledn offers bitcoin-backed loans for people who want liquidity without selling. You get:

• Bitcoin-only lending
• Transparent custody
• Clear risk controls
• Straightforward terms

You keep ownership of your bitcoin. Terms and availability depend on where you live.

Open an account with Ledn

Disclaimer

This article is sponsored by 21 Technologies Inc. and/or its subsidiaries (“Ledn”) and is for general information, discussion, or educational purposes only and is not to be construed or relied upon as constituting legal, financial, investment, accounting, tax, estate-planning, or other professional advice or recommendation. Please read Ledn’s full Risk Disclosure Statement and Disclaimers.

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